These are the 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024

 

The Capitol building on September 9 in Washington, DC. 

Kent Nishimura/Getty Images

Senate control is up for grabs Tuesday. And although Republicans are well positioned to win the majority, Democrats cannot be counted out entirely.

That’s because their well-funded candidates have consistently overperformed the top of the ticket in polling of many of the most important races. And even as the Senate map has become more daunting for Democrats with West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin retiring, opportunities to mitigate GOP gains have opened up in Texas and, increasingly, Nebraska.

With Manchin almost certain to be succeeded by a Republican, the GOP needs to either pick up one more Senate seat or win the White House to flip the chamber. That math puts the pressure on Democrats to hold all their competitive seats while trying to knock off Republicans in Texas and Florida.

The battle for the Senate has evolved over the past two years, and CNN’s rankings of the top 10 seats most likely to flip — which is based on our reporting, as well as polling, fundraising and advertising data — has reflected those shifts.

These are the states most likely to flip:

• West Virginia

• Montana

• Ohio

• Wisconsin

• Michigan

• Pennsylvania

• Arizona

• Nevada

• Texas

• Nebraska