Tight races across battleground states in final New York Times and Siena College polls
Across the seven states most likely to decide this year’s presidential election, neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump has built a clear advantage, with the two locked in margin of error races in six of them, according to the final New York Times/Siena College polls of this election cycle.
Looking at the results for matchups factoring in third-party candidates, the surveys find Harris and Trump tied in Georgia (46% each), Michigan (45% each) and Pennsylvania (47% each) among likely voters there, collectively worth 50 electoral votes in Tuesday’s election. Harris holds 48% to Trump’s 45% in both Wisconsin and North Carolina, and 48% to Trump’s 46% in Nevada, gaps within each poll’s error margin suggesting no clear leader, and Trump narrowly leads in Arizona, 48% Trump to 44% Harris. Head-to-head matchups between the two suggest a similar picture, with only Trump’s edge in Arizona outside the error margin in that state.
The survey suggests that late deciding voters across these states may be breaking in Harris’ direction. According to The Times, the 8% of likely voters who decided on their vote in the last few days or weeks split 55% for Harris to 44% for Trump.
In some states, the polls also suggest some shifts in voter priorities as the campaign’s end nears. In Wisconsin, abortion is now nearly as frequently named as a top issue as the economy, and immigration is on the rise in Arizona. Across all seven states, 24% call the economy the top issue, 18% abortion, 15% immigration, and 8% mention democracy.
The surveys were conducted between October 24 and November 2. Results combined across the seven states have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.3 percentage points, details for each state are below.
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