Could the Lebanon truce help bring peace to Gaza? Expert casts doubt
A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has brought calm to Lebanon after weeks of deadly strikes and ground clashes. But the chances of a similar deal for Gaza appear slim.
For much of the conflict, Hezbollah’s former leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli strike, vowed that a truce with Israel will only be reached if a ceasefire is declared in Gaza.
Despite Nasrallah’s vow, Hezbollah and Israel moved to implement a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon even as Gaza remained without one.
Negotiations for a truce in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages have been in stalemate for months as both sides continue rejecting each other’s demands.
Despite the setbacks, the outgoing Biden administration maintained that there might be “newfound opportunity” after Lebanon’s truce agreement to drive forward a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza.
“Hamas is isolated. Hamas is now under pressure, and all eyes … are going to turn to Hamas. … There is now newfound opportunity and possibility to drive forward a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN.
However, Crisis Group’s Senior Palestine Analyst Tahani Mustafa disagreed.
“I don’t think a ceasefire in Lebanon has changed much for the dynamics of a Gaza ceasefire,” she said.
“We still have the same challenges they haven’t changed, both sides have mutually exclusive demands and there’s no pressure on Israel to really scale back and start taking the negotiation seriously,” Mustafa added.
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