Power balance has shifted as region braces for Israel's response to Iran, analyst says

 

A firefighter stands in front of an apartment hit by an Israeli airstrike, in Beirut, Lebanon, on October 3, 2024. 

Hussein Malla/AP

Devastating Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon have given Israel the upper hand as it edges toward a direct confrontation with the militant group’s backers in Iran, a regional expert said on Thursday.

After killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and launching a ground incursion in southern Lebanon, Israel was likely to target Iran directly in response to Tuesday’s Iranian missile attack, said Paul Salem, vice president for international engagement at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

“We are bracing for a large-scale Israeli attack on Iran,” Salem told CNN’s Lynda Kinkade.

Israel’s assassination of Nasrallah and multiple heavy hits to Hezbollah over the past two weeks signaled a “tectonic shift” in regional power dynamics, he added.

“Before Israel decapitated Hezbollah and greatly degraded it, Israel used to worry about Hezbollah much more when it contemplated hitting Iran,” Salem said.

“Now, they feel Hezbollah is not a major threat and now Israel is focused on going after Iran itself. And that tectonic shift is a shift in which Iran no longer has the balance of power or balance of deterrence between Iran and Israel.”