Analysis: There are signs that Hezbollah has been driven deeper underground

 People watch a televised speech by the leader of the Hezbollah movement Hassan Nasrallah inside a house in the southern Lebanese village of Zawatar on September 19.

Hezbollah is on the back foot. The first sign was the absence of a public gathering – typically of high-level party officials and supporters – to watch the militant group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, deliver a televised speech on Thursday.

The second sign was that Nasrallah’s address – his first since two waves of attacks detonated thousands of Hezbollah wireless devices earlier this week – was very possibly pre-recorded.

The leader of the powerful militant group has not delivered a speech in person since the start of Lebanon’s last all-out war with Israel in 2006. But he will often make a point of proving that his broadcasts are live.

Thursday’s speech was billed as live, but about 20 minutes in, Israel dropped flares over the Lebanese capital and sent windows shaking with a fresh wave of sonic booms. The roar reverberated throughout the city, but the Beirut-based militant leader neither flinched nor referenced the incident.

Israel’s fighter jets seemed intent on underscoring the gains of the attacks on Hezbollah’s wireless devices: the group had been driven deeper underground.

“Without a doubt, we have suffered a major blow,” Nasrallah said.

“(It is) unprecedented in the history of the resistance in Lebanon at least, unprecedented in the history of Lebanon, and it may be unprecedented in the history of the conflict with the Israeli enemy across the entire region.”

Nasrallah vowed a “reckoning” but was scant on the details. The attack “will be met with a reckoning and fair punishment in ways that they expect and don’t expect,” he said.

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