Tornadoes, lime-sized hail possible as severe weather threat grows in Midwest, Ohio Valley
There is a threat of tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts with any thunderstorms that develop through Tuesday night. Those threats extend from eastern Missouri to Ohio and southern Michigan.
Tens of millions of people continue to be at risk of seeing severe weather from a powerful cross-country storm that’s marching east across the U.S., but on Tuesday afternoon, that threat grew for more than 11 million people in portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley that could now see hail the size of limes and possible tornadoes.
The atmosphere is expected more unstable as moisture streams in from the south ahead of a powerful cold front moving in from the west, combined with a lack of cloud cover that will add additional warmth and fuel for severe thunderstorm development into the evening and overnight hours.
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"We’ve got the clouds for the initial stuff," FOX Weather Meteorologist Bob Van Dillen said on Tuesday morning. "We thought maybe that would disrupt the instability later this afternoon, but the clouds are south of central and northern Illinois, which means you’re going to see a lot of daytime heating today, and that’s going to make it even more unstable for you later this afternoon."
The moisture being pulled in from the south will push farther north all the way into parts of southern Michigan. Typically, at this time of year, moisture needed to fuel a severe weather threat is confined to areas along the Gulf Coast and Deep South, but that’s not the case with this rare February threat.
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Tornadoes, large hail possible on Tuesday in Midwest, Great Lakes
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The explosive development of thunderstorms expected during the day and into the evening and overnight hours on Tuesday is also being fueled by record warmth ahead of the cold front, as well as a blast of cold air behind it.
"The type of situation we have now, we have that huge cold front coming in with massive temperature drops," Van Dillen said. "So, the lapse rates, as you go up through the atmosphere, the way it cools down, the quicker, the more unstable, and that’s what we’re going to find."
That’s why large hail will also be a concern with any storms that do develop.
"And that’s because we have the cold air aloft," FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said. "I mean, these updrafts, these storms are going to build vertically. And so these hailstones are going to have the opportunity to really touch on some cold air."
NIGHTTIME TORNADOES FAR MORE LIKELY TO TURN DEADLY THAN DAYTIME ONES
Britta Knows Best: Staying safe when tornadoes strike at night
Severe weather is possible in parts of the Midwest on Tuesday, and the threat will continue into the overnight hours. This includes a threat of nocturnal tornadoes. FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin provides some safety tips to help keep you safe and prepared.
There are more than 55 million people from the Midwest to the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley that will be at risk of seeing severe weather on Tuesday.
However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) updated its severe weather outlook on Tuesday afternoon and now has more than 11 million people in a Level 3 out of 5 on its 5-point severe thunderstorm risk scale.
That Level 3 risk includes two areas: northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, as well as an area stretching from southeastern Missouri to southwestern Ohio, including Paducah and Louisville in Kentucky, and Cincinnati.
"Severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail, damaging (wind) gusts, and tornadoes, some of which may be significant, will be possible from late (Tuesday) afternoon into the overnight, across portions of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes," the SPC said in its update.
Nearly 30 million people remain in the Level 2 risk for severe thunderstorms, including Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis and Columbus.
St. Louis, which had been included in the Level 2 threat, saw its chances of severe weather lower earlier on Tuesday morning to a Level 1 risk.
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Forecasters said there is the threat of tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts with any thunderstorms that develop through Tuesday night.
Those threats extend from eastern Missouri to Ohio and southern Michigan.
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However, there is a hatched area where there is a higher threat for hail of at least 2 inches in diameter, as well as the potential for tornadoes stronger than EF-2.
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Sometimes, the SPC uses a black-shaded area called a "hatched area."
A "hatched area" means there is a significant threat of the particular type of severe weather being described in the associated map inside the highlighted area.
Severe thunderstorm threat pushes east to include areas from Tennessee Valley to New England
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The severe weather threat will continue into Wednesday and has expanded in coverage to include areas from the Tennessee Valley to New England.
More than 13 million people are now included in a Level 1 risk, including cities such as Nashville, Charleston in West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Scranton in Pennsylvania, Binghamton and Albany in New York and Burlington in Vermont.
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