Chaos at the airport! Pro strategies for surviving the next air travel meltdown

 Another airline service meltdown is coming. It's not a question of "if," but "when" it will happen. And this one could make last holiday's airline problems look like a minor delay.

Says who? Say experts. Says the Federal Aviation Administration. Says everyone.

"There may be some pain ahead for summer travelers," Mike Taylor, a managing director at J.D. Power, warned. "Even with airlines taking precautions, the industry's basic infrastructure hasn't recovered from the pandemic. There's a pilot shortage – and everyone wants to fly."

Even the FAA is sounding the alarm. This spring, when the agency renewed its waiver for takeoff and landing slots at the busiest East Coast airports, it predicted a 45% increase in delays at New York area airports this summer compared to the same period a year ago. That sounds like a whole summer's worth of meltdowns to me.

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The U.S. Travel Association predicts this summer will be a "stress test" for the air travel system. A recent survey commissioned by the organization suggests we've already gotten a preview, with 35% of Americans having reported a delay or cancellation in the last 12 months. No surprise, then, that only about one-third of recent air travelers (32%) are "very satisfied" with their air travel experience.

Even airlines are saying things could get bad. Many have trimmed their schedules, fearful they won't be able to operate all their scheduled flights. 

"Every major airline has warned of travel issues this summer because of staffing, potential weather and traffic controller shortages," Andrew Steinberg, a travel advisor with OvationNetwork, said.

Oh, did I forget to mention the air traffic controller shortage? Yeah, there's one of those, too. There are 10% fewer fully certified controllers than a decade ago.

But what are the odds of a complete breakdown of the system? What are air travelers doing about it – and what should you do about it?

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How likely is another air travel meltdown this summer?

It's very likely. Although none of the experts I spoke with would give me their odds – wouldn't want to scare away any customers now, would they? – they know all the key ingredients are there for a meltdown.

Demand is heating up, with summer airfare searches up by 25% compared to this time last year, according to Expedia.

"Airlines are still operating fewer flights than pre-pandemic, which means flights will be fuller this summer," Christie Hudson, a spokeswoman for Expedia, told me.

Add to that the staffing problems and the other potential technical issues that led to last year's air travel problems. Airlines continue to use outdated technology that's prone to breaking down. The pilot deficit is about to get dramatically worse in the U.S. At the moment, we are 8,000 pilots short globally, but it will grow to nearly 30,000 pilots by 2032, according to a recent estimate. And there's the air traffic control problem, which I already mentioned.

All you have to do is add a big thunderstorm or a hurricane to the mix, and boom! You'll be wishing you drove instead.