Covid deaths FELL for the first time since September in England's last full week of lockdown, ONS data shows – as other figures show second wave fatalities peaked in mid-November


  • Deaths occurring in England and Wales appeared to hit peak of 2,808 in week to November 20, now falling
  • Office for National Statistics report shows that there were 2,713 fatalities between November 21 and 27
  • Three per cent decline was the first time since the start of September that deaths had come down
  • Death registrations, which are slower to change than actual occurrences, continued to rise above averageWeekly Covid deaths in England dropped for the first time since September during the country's last full week of lockdown, statistics show.

    Today's Office for National Statistics report showed Covid was mentioned on 2,713 death certificates in England and Wales in the seven-day spell between November 21 and 27, which was down from 2,808 a week earlier.  

    The three per cent drop, shown in the count by the actual date of death as opposed to registration, was the first time in 12 weeks that the number of people dying had fallen in England and Wales. Most of the fatalities were in England.  Separate Government statistics show daily deaths in Britain's second wave of Covid peaked in mid-November. 

    Death numbers tend to spike around three weeks after infections do because of the time it takes for victims to become seriously ill and then die.

    So a peak in deaths almost three weeks into the national lockdown – in the week up to November 20 – shows that the outbreak was at its largest and most rampant at the start of November, just before the shutdown started. Scientists at the time estimated that between 50,000 and 100,000 people were getting infected each day.

    And it suggests lockdown worked, bringing infections under control around a month ago which is now translating into fewer people going into hospital and dying. 

    The ONS report also shows that coronavirus is now accounting for one in every four deaths in England and Wales, while fewer people than normal are dying of other causes. 

    Total deaths are above average in all places, however, pushed up by Covid deaths, and over 35,000 more people than usual have died in private homes this year as many have avoided or been unable to get life-saving medical care.

    Excess deaths appear to be declining now too, however, and there were 2,099 more deaths than average registered in the week to November 27, compared to 2,155 the week before. 

    Registered deaths, which are counted by when a person's death is officially noted, not the day it happens, were the highest in six months for coronavirus in the most recent week, at 3,040, more than any week since May 15. These records, however, include some deaths that actually happened in earlier weeks.

    Office for National Statistics figures show that the weekly total of coronavirus death occurrences in England and Wales declined for the first time since September at the end of England's second lockdown

    Office for National Statistics figures show that the weekly total of coronavirus death occurrences in England and Wales declined for the first time since September at the end of England's second lockdown

    The ONS report published today showed that coronavirus death occurrences – which are counted by date of death – declined for the first time since the week that ended on September 4.

    A total of 2,713 were recorded between November 21 and 27, down from 2,808 to November 20, but still higher than any other week since May and up from 2,584 in the week to November 13.

    Another measure used by the ONS – death registrations – counts how many deaths are recorded in each week by the date on which the record is filed, not the person's actual day of death.

    This data showed that Covid fatalities continued to rise in the week to November 27, up 13 per cent from 2,697 to 3,040 in seven days which was the 12th week in a row that it increased.

    But the day of death count aligns with data from Public Health England, which suggests fatalities peaked in the third week of November. England's lockdown ran from November 5 to December 2.

    PHE's statistics on the Government dashboard show that the seven-day average count of Covid deaths, by date of death, peaked on November 21 at 400 a day, and has been falling continuously since. England's one-day high was 435 deaths on November 18. 

    ONS data shows that date-of-death coronavirus fatalities peaked in the week of April 17, when a staggering 8,324 people died with the virus and nothing since has come close.

    Excess deaths were their highest in the same week, when there were 11,854 more fatalities than usual with all causes taken into account – 22,351 people died in that week, up from an average of 10,497.

    Are Britain's Covid cases starting to slowly creep up again?

    Britain's daily Covid cases may be starting to slowly creep up again, official statistics suggested today after health chiefs recorded another 14,718 infections.

    Department of Health figures show daily cases plummeted in size over the fortnight that started November 10 as England's national lockdown thwarted the outbreak. But the UK's curve began to flatten roughly a week before the draconian restrictions were lifted, suggesting Britons grew tired of the policies before they were forced into the toughened three-tier scheme. 

    For comparison, 12,330 Brits were added to the Government's positive tally last Monday — meaning today's figure is a 19.4 per cent rise week-on-week.

    Deaths are still continuing to fall, however, as a result of the national lockdown. Another 189 victims were posted today, down 8 per cent on the 205 registered last Monday. Fatalities can lag weeks behind cases because it can take infected patients a fortnight to fall severely ill and succumb to the illness. 

    Top scientists have warned that Britain faces a third wave if the nation takes its 'foot off the pedal' because of the vaccine roll-out. Concerns of a spike in cases before Christmas were raised over the weekend, after pictures showed massive crowds across the country, including outside Harrods in London.

    Professor Andrew Hayward, an epidemiologist at University College London and member of No10's advisory panel SAGE, called on Britons to stick to the rules to avoid a 'severe peak' in the New Year.

    Another dimension of today's report suggesting deaths are coming down showed that excess deaths declined, too.

    All-cause deaths registered in the week to November 27 hit 12,456, which was 2,099 more than the 10,357 that would be expected for the time of year.

    The increase – known as the excess – was smaller than last week's when there were 12,535 deaths compared to a five-year average of 10,380 (2,155 excess deaths).

    One section of excess deaths causing concern among scientists is those that are happening in people's private homes, which now number a total of 35,631 more than usual so far this year in England and Wales. 

    The number of excess deaths that ave occurred in private homes in England and Wales since the start of the coronavirus pandemic has now passed 35,000. 

    Of this total, only 3,205 – 9 per cent – were deaths involving Covid-19, meaning that more than 30,000 people have died at home with illnesses that they would normally have been in a hospital or care home with.

    More detailed data on this, produced by Public Health England, showed that heart disease deaths have risen above average since the first wave of coronavirus, while those caused by dementia are down.

    PHE data shows that at least 1,189 more people than usual have died of heart diseases since the end of May.

    But during the same time, the number of people dying of dementia or Alzheimer's disease - the most common form of dementia - has dropped to 3,120 below average.

    Deaths from all causes spiked during the first wave of the pandemic, between March and May, as thousands of people sick with other illnesses succumbed to the rampant Covid-19 outbreak or were unable to get the medical care they needed.

    Most have since tumbled down to approximately normal levels but the country's two biggest killers show clear differences to what would be expected in a normal year.

    Numbers of people dying at home have surged in tandem with heart disease fatalities.

    Meanwhile, care home deaths rocketed in the first wave when the virus ripped through their vulnerable residents, many of whom have dementia, but have been significantly lower in the second wave amid stricter protections for the sector. 

    Professor David Spiegelhalter, a Cambridge University statistician, told MailOnline it was likely that dementia patients were killed in such huge numbers at the start of the outbreak that fewer are vulnerable to it now, and also that many Covid victims will also have dementia but have the virus listed as their main cause of death.

    Professor Spiegelhalter said: 'It's a complex picture. Many of the Covid deaths in the first wave were of people with Alzheimer's and dementia, so some of the deficit in such deaths now will be the result of those deaths having been brought forward by six months. 

    'Also some of the deficit may be due to people dying with both Alzheimer's and dementia and Covid, and then having Covid put as the primary cause - non-Covid deaths are running slightly below normal at the moment.'    


    Britain today began mass vaccination of the public with Pfizer/BioNTech's Covid vaccine, bringing the 'end in sight' to pandemic lockdown rules. 

    Here, MailOnline answers all the questions about the jab, including who will get it first, how much it costs and where people will be vaccinated.

    What could the logistical challenges of delivering it be?

    Both the Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Health Secretary Matt Hancock warned that transporting and storing Pfizer's breakthrough jab 'won't be easy', while Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, described the logistics behind the mass roll out as 'formidable'. 

    The problems stem from the fact the vaccine must be kept in long-term storage at -70C. 

    To keep doses at this ultra-low temperature, they need to be packaged with dry ice and placed in a special transport box the size of a suitcase which hold 5,000 doses.

    These containers can prevent the vaccines from spoiling for 10 days if they remain unopened.

    Once the batches arrive at vaccination hubs, they can be stored in standard medical fridges at between 2°C and 8°C for up to five days. 

    Or they can be kept in their shipping boxes for up to 30 days if the containers are topped up with dry ice at least once a week.

    Welsh Health Minister Vaughan Gething said the logistical issues meant 'in practical terms at this stage that we cannot deliver this vaccine to care homes'

    The sticking point for delivering the jab to places like care homes may be that BioNTech says that the vaccine can only be kept at between 2°C and 8°C for six hours in transit without going off. 

    Because the Pfizer suitcases hold 5,000 vaccine doses, smaller quantities would have to be removed from the dry ice suitcases for transport to care homes. 

    But once they are in transit the doses could perish after six hours. It's unclear exactly why this is the case.  

    Who is top of the list to get a coronavirus vaccine?

    The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) has examined data on who suffers the worst outcomes from coronavirus and who is at highest risk of death. 

    The JCVI’s guidance says the order of priority should be the below.

    1. Residents in a care home for older adults and their carers 

    2. All those who are 80 years of age and over and frontline health and social care workers

    3. All those who are 75 years of age and over

    4. All those who are 70 years of age and over and clinically extremely vulnerable individuals, excluding pregnant women and those under 18 years of age

    5. All those who are 65 years of age and over

    6. Adults aged 18 to 65 years in an at-risk group, such as the morbidly obese

    7. All those aged 60 and over

    8. All those aged 55 and over

    9. All those aged 50 and over

    However, because of the aforementioned logistical problems, care homes cannot receive the vaccines straight away, so elderly NHS patients, care workers and NHS staff are receiving the first doses.

    Where will people get the vaccine, and who will be administering it?

    Work was going on behind the scenes to ensure that NHS staff were ready to start delivering vaccines to the most vulnerable from the start of December. 

    Vaccinations today started in 70 NHS hospitals and the operation will be scaled up in the coming days and weeks. 

    Nightingale Hospitals and sports stadiums have been prepared as sites for mass vaccination clinics, while GPs and pharmacists will also be involved in the mammoth Army-backed operation to deliver the jab.  

    New regulations allowing more healthcare workers — and NHS volunteers — to administer flu and potential Covid-19 vaccines have also been introduced by the Government. They will be supervised by a healthcare professional.

    NHS England stated that GP practices offering vaccines must be able to operate from 8am to 8pm, seven days a week including bank holidays when required for reasons such as needing to use up supplies of a vaccine without wasting any.

    A letter sent to all practices suggests that it may be necessary for some staff to vaccinate patients on Christmas Day. Vaccination sites are expected to be able to deliver at least around 1,000 jabs per week. The contract to vaccinate begins next Tuesday and GPs will be paid £25.16 for every two jabs they administer.

    Volunteers without medical training can put themselves forward through the GoodSAM app to give injections working with St John Ambulance. The role description states: ‘Volunteer vaccinators will be trained to deliver a vaccination to a patient. They will also be ready to act if a patient has an adverse reaction.’

    People are also being sought to act as vaccination care volunteers. They will help patients get to the right place for their jab and be on hand to provide first aid if anyone becomes unwell.

    Volunteer patient advocates, the third type of helper, will ‘concentrate on the welfare of patients through their experience’.

    How many doses of the Pfizer vaccine has the UK bought?  

    The UK has secured 40million doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, with 10million due in the UK by the end of the year. 800,000 doses are already in the country and ready to be used.

    Patients need two doses, meaning Number 10 has only secured enough doses for around a third of Britain. 

    However, it is likely other vaccines, including one from Oxford University that the UK has bought 100million doses of, will be approved in the coming weeks and months.

    How long does it protect you for?

    Regulators today said there was evidence of 'partial immunity' just seven days after the first dose, offering a glimmer of hope that the roll-out beginning next week may have an effect before Christmas.

    But they insisted the best immunity comes seven days after the second dose, which is given three weeks after the first.

    It remains a mystery as to how long immunity against Covid lasts for, with top scientists warning that people may need to be vaccinated against the disease every winter, like the flu.  

    What type of vaccine is this?

    The jab is known as a messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine.

    Conventional vaccines are produced using weakened forms of the virus, but mRNAs use only the virus’s genetic code.

    An mRNA vaccine is injected into the body where it enters cells and tells them to create antigens. These antigens are recognised by the immune system and prepare it to fight coronavirus.

    What are the advantages of this type of vaccine?

    No actual virus is needed to create an mRNA vaccine. This means the rate at which it can be produced is dramatically accelerated. As a result, mRNA vaccines have been hailed as potentially offering a rapid solution to new outbreaks of infectious diseases.

    In theory, they can also be modified reasonably quickly if, for example, a virus develops mutations and begins to change. mRNA vaccines are also cheaper to produce than traditional vaccines, although both will play an important role in tackling Covid-19.

    Where is the vaccine made?   

    Pfizer's jab is being manufactured at the firm's plant in Belgium, as well as separate sites in the US. 

    BioNTech — the other drug company involved in the vaccine — has two production facilities in Germany that are expected to start churning out doses in the New Year.   

    Can the vaccine be transported in a fridge?

    Yes, although the vaccine should be kept at -70°C to ensure its long-term preservation, it can be transported by car or van if refrigerated between 2°C and 8°C.

    According to the latest data from BioNTech, the company that owns the vaccine, it is only safe to use within six hours of being defrosted if transported in a fridge.

    Researchers say this would allow administration of the vaccine to high-risk populations who may be unable to visit vaccination centres, such as care home residents. However, it also says that the vaccine remains stable and viable for up to five days if kept in a stationary fridge — like in a GP surgery - at 2-8°C.

    The only difference between the two scenarios is that one involves being chilled and transported, while the other is not moved while being cooled.

    Why this difference shortens the vaccine's shelf-life is currently unexplained. 

    Speaking today at a virtual press conference, the vaccine's developers hinted the restrictions would be eased as more data was gathered, indicating the limits are currently overly-cautious to ensure the vaccine reaches society's most vulnerable people with no drop-off in its efficacy. 

    Are they safe?

    All vaccines undergo rigorous testing and have oversight from experienced regulators.

    Some believe mRNA vaccines are safer for the patient as they do not rely on any element of the virus being injected into the body. mRNA vaccines have been tried and tested in the lab and on animals before moving to human studies.

    The human trials of mRNA vaccines – involving tens of thousands of people worldwide – have been going on since early 2020 to show whether they are safe and effective.

    Pfizer will continue to collect safety and long-term outcomes data from participants for two years.

    Can you get the Covid vaccine privately? 

    The Queen and the rest of the Royal Family will not be able to jump the queue for a Covid-19 vaccine and even Boris Johnson will have to wait his turn, it was revealed last month.

    No one will be given 'special treatment' when the country launches its mass-immunisation drive, according to Government sources.

    Even rich companies won't be able to skip the line, despite fears wealthy corporations would snap up vaccines directly to get their staff back to work and make up for the money haemorrhaged during lockdown. 

    Could employers force staff to get a vaccine?

    It is 'highly unlikely' private employers could force staff to get a Covid jab when one finally becomes available, according to lawyers.

    Although most of Britain will need to get vaccinated to achieve herd immunity and stop the disease spreading, a jab can't be given without people's consent.

    Lawyers at the global firm Morgan Lewis said it was not likely that firms in the UK could start enforcing vaccination.

    They said: 'A vaccine could only be lawfully administered provided that the individual consented to such treatment. It is highly doubtful an employee could be described as consenting to treatment under any degree of compulsion by their employer.'

    Will I get a vaccine passport if I get the jab?  

    Immunity passports have been touted as the key for getting swathes of society back to normal life, and allowing millions to evade restrictions. This is because they would indicate someone is protected against the virus, and is able to fight it off without getting severely ill or dying.

    Bars, cinemas and football stadiums could turn away Britons who have not been vaccinated against coronavirus, the UK's vaccine minister Nadhim Zahawi suggested.

    But ministers have since denied Britons will need 'immunity certificates' to go to the pub. Michael Gove was asked yesterday during a round of interviews whether people could need to prove they had been given coronavirus vaccines to enter bars and restaurants. He replied flatly: 'No.'

    Pressed on whether they could be required at theatres or sports centres, he said: 'No I don't think so, no.' 

    Mr Hancock today said that a vaccine passport 'isn't part of our plan'. He told Sky News: 'While we know that this vaccine protects you from getting ill with Covid - we don't yet know how much it stops you transmitting Covid until we roll it out broadly.'

    Don’t vaccines take a long time to produce?

    In the past it has taken years, sometimes decades, to produce a vaccine.

    Traditionally, vaccine development includes various processes, including design and development stages followed by clinical trials – which in themselves need approval before they even begin.

    But in the trials for a Covid-19 vaccine, things look slightly different. A process which usually takes years has been condensed to months.

    While the early design and development stages look similar, the clinical trial phases overlap, instead of taking place sequentially.

    And pharmaceutical firms have begun manufacturing before final approval has been granted – taking on the risk that they may be forced to scrap their work.

    The new way of working means that regulators around the world can start to look at scientific data earlier than they traditionally would do.

    Aren’t there other vaccines?

    Yes, recent data from the Oxford/AstraZeneca, and Moderna vaccine trials suggests their candidates also have high efficacy.

    Oxford data indicates the vaccine has 62 per cent efficacy when one full dose is given followed by another full dose.

    But when people were given a half dose followed by a full dose at least a month later, its efficacy rose to 90 per cent, according to data. But the breakthrough results from trials of Oxford University's vaccine were based on 'shaky science', experts have warned.

    The combined analysis from both dosing regimes resulted in an average efficacy of 70.4 per cent.

    Final results from the trials of Moderna’s vaccine suggest it has 94.1 per cent efficacy, and 100 per cent efficacy against severe Covid-19.

    Nobody who was vaccinated with the vaccine known as mRNA-1273 developed severe coronavirus.

    A graph showing vaccine orders made by the EU, US, Canada, UK, Japan and Australia

    Which jab is best?

    The early contenders all have high efficacy rates, but researchers say it is difficult to make direct comparisons because it is not yet known exactly what everyone is measuring in the trials.

    Analysis shows the Pfizer vaccine can prevent 95 per cent of people from getting Covid-19, including 94 per cent in older age groups. 

    A technician inspects vials of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine candidate BNT162b2 at a Pfizer manufacturing site in manufacturing site in St. Louis, Missouri

    A technician inspects vials of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine candidate BNT162b2 at a Pfizer manufacturing site in manufacturing site in St. Louis, Missouri

    The vaccine has been tested on 43,500 people in six countries and no safety concerns were raised. Approval means the UK can begin rolling out the vaccine to those most in need, including frontline NHS workers. 

    How many doses of other jabs has the UK secured?

    The UK has secured access to 100million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford University vaccine, which is almost enough for most of the population.

    It also belatedly struck a deals for seven million doses of the jab on offer from Moderna in the US.

    The deals for 357million doses of seven different vaccines cover four different classes: adenoviral vaccines, mRNA vaccines, inactivated whole virus vaccines and protein adjuvant vaccines.  

    How much does Pfizer's vaccine cost?

    Pfizer/BioNTech is making its vaccine available not-for-profit.

    According to reports, the Moderna vaccine could cost about 38 dollars (£28) per dose and the Pfizer candidate could cost around 20 dollars (£15).

    Researchers suggest the Oxford vaccine could be relatively cheap to produce, with some reports indicating it could be about £3 per dose.

    AstraZeneca said it will not sell it for a profit, so it can be available to all countries.

    However, the details of the deals made by the UK Government have not been made public.

    What is the usual process for developing a vaccine?

    Traditionally vaccine development takes several years and includes various processes, including design and development stages followed by clinical trials – which in themselves need approval before they even begin.

    The trials take place in three sequential stages – also known as phases. The research will show whether a vaccine generates antibodies but also protects people from disease. They will also identify any safety issues.

    Once the trials are complete, the information gathered by researchers is sent to regulators for review. This is thoroughly analysed by clinicians and scientists before being approved for widespread use. Then, after approval from regulators, people can start to receive the vaccine.

    Is this different because of the pandemic?

    The process looks slightly different in the trials for a Covid vaccine.

    While the early design and development stages look similar, the clinical trial phases have overlapped – instead of taking place sequentially.

    But won’t that mean that safety is compromised?

    Even though some phases of the clinical trial process have run in parallel rather than one after another, the safety checks have still been the same as they would for any new medicine.

    The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has adopted the phrase 'safety is our watchword'.

    Regulators have said they will 'rigorously assess' the data and evidence submitted on the vaccine’s safety, quality and effectiveness.

    And, in most clinical trials, any safety issues are usually identified in the first two to three months – a period which has already lapsed for most vaccine front-runners.

    How are regulators acting so quickly?

    Regulators have been carrying out 'rolling reviews', which means that instead of going through reams of information at the conclusion of the trials, they have been given access to the data as the scientists work.

    A rolling review of the vaccine data started several months ago.

    This means regulators can start to look at scientific data earlier than they traditionally would do, which in turn means the approval process can be sped up. Regulators sometimes have thousands of pages of information to go over with a fine-tooth comb – which understandably takes time.

    Once all the data available on the vaccine is submitted, MHRA experts will carefully and scientifically review the safety, quality and effectiveness data – how it protects people from Covid-19 and the level of protection it provides.

    After this has been done, advice is sought from the Government’s independent advisory body, the Commission on Human Medicines (CHM).

    What does ‘approved for use’ mean?

    For a medicine to be used in the UK it has to be granted a licence. This means that it has been through all the rigorous safety and efficacy checks and regulators are confident in the findings of the clinical trials.

    By reviewing the data as they become available, the MHRA can reach its opinion sooner on whether or not the medicine or vaccine should be licensed without compromising the thoroughness of their review.

    So what data would the regulator have looked at?

    The information provided to the MHRA will have included what the vaccine contains, how it works in the body, how well it works and its side-effects, and who it is meant to be used for.

    This data must include the results of all animal studies and clinical trials in humans, manufacturing and quality controls, consistency in batch production, and testing of the final product specification.

    The factories where the vaccines are made are also inspected before a licence can be granted to make sure that the product supplied will be of the same consistent high standard.

    Husband and wife Ugur Sahin and Oezlem Tuereci are behind the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine that could change the world

    Husband and wife Ugur Sahin and Oezlem Tuereci are behind the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine that could change the world

    Regulators look at stacks of data before approving any vaccines (stock)

    Regulators look at stacks of data before approving any vaccines (stock)

    What is the difference between the MHRA and the CHM? 

    The MHRA is the British regulator of medicines and medical devices, ensuring their safety, quality and effectiveness.

    The CHM advises ministers on medicinal products. It is made up of an independent group of advisers responsible for advising on the need for, and content of, risk management plans for new medicines.

    It also advises officials on the impact of new safety issues on the balance of risks and benefits of licensed medicines.

    The CHM also offer advice on 'applications for both national and European marketing authorisations'.

    Haven’t pharmaceutical companies already started making vaccines?

    Yes. Usually large-scale production and distribution begins only after regulatory approval. But in the case of Covid-19 vaccines, pharmaceutical firms have begun manufacturing before final approval had been granted – taking on the risk that they may be forced to scrap their work.

No comments:

Powered by Blogger.