Texas included in Hurricane Beryl's forecast cone as monstrous storm charges through Caribbean

Thursday will be a big day that the FOX Forecast Center will have to monitor where Hurricane Beryl hits the Yucatan. If there is an impact farther to the north, closer to Cancun, then that northerly trajectory is going to put Texas more at play for effects from Beryl.

About 2.5 million people in South Texas are within the forecast cone for Hurricane Beryl's potential arrival this weekend, posing risks of heavy rains, hazardous rip currents, and powerful winds.

"If I lived in Texas, and I have lived in Texas, this would be a storm that I would be watching closely," FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said. "The possible impacts would be Sunday into Monday."

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Forecast cone for Hurricane Beryl.

(FOX Weather)

After peaking in intensity Tuesday morning, the slightly weaker but still extremely powerful Beryl is taking direct aim at Jamaica on Wednesday as the monstrous storm continues to move through the Caribbean.

The FOX Forecast Center said Beryl would quickly move away from Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, the Cayman Islands will feel the brunt of the storm. Winds topping 70-plus mph are likely, and storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal.

The questions arise late Thursday or Friday as the storm approaches Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. Beryl will presumably be a weaker storm at that time due to atmospheric factors and possible interaction with the tall mountains in Jamaica, the FOX Forecast Center said. 

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Watch: Cayman Islands residents wait 'hours' for supplies as Hurricane Beryl approaches

Residents of the Cayman Islands have been preparing for the potential effects of Hurricane Beryl in the coming days, and videos show people waiting in long lines for supplies. 

The water in the Caribbean is extraordinarily warm, however, so it might regenerate quickly. This adds to great uncertainty about Beryl's strength when it approaches the Yucatán. There is reasonable certainty that Beryl will track across the Yucatán into the Gulf. At that point, its forward speed will slow since the high-pressure system to the north will be moving away.

Saildrone captures video of Hurricane Beryl’s fury in Caribbean

Saildrone Inc. said its uncrewed surface vehicle captured waves heights of 25 feet south of Puerto Rico. Hurricane Beryl was a Category 5, at the time, the strongest any hurricane had been in June.

The future track depends on Beryl's strength, how far north it is late in the week, how fast it gets to the Gulf and the exact position of that blocking high-pressure to the north. 

It increasingly appears that Beryl's track will indeed bend north into the Gulf, but the sharpness of the bend is unknowable, the FOX Forecast Center said. 

"Tomorrow (Thursday) is a big day that we have to see where Beryl hits the Yucatan. If we have impact farther to the north, closer to Cancun, … then that northerly trajectory is going to put Texas more at play," Merwin said. "Because this could be a very lopsided storm, it could also mean that some of the weather could move into Louisiana, meaning the surge and also the rain impact. If we see the reemergence into the Gulf of Mexico down into the Bay of Campeche, then we're looking at an impact from Mexico."

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A look at the flood threat in South Texas through Monday.

(FOX Weather)

The National Hurricane Center is preliminarily forecasting a tropical storm in the Gulf but adding the admonition that the intensity is highly uncertain. However, an intensifying hurricane is not out of the question, the FOX Forecast Center said.

"Sometimes we can have that last-minute punch from a tropical storm into a Category 1 hurricane, but that wouldn't change the impact, Merwin said. 

Here's the rainfall forecast for the upcoming 10 days in Texas.

(FOX Weather)

The impact would likely be rain, Merwin adds. Far South Texas, including Brownsville and Port Mansfield, are in a Level 2 out of 4 threat for flash flooding on Sunday into early Monday.  Beryl's forecast cone includes those two cities plus Corpus Christi. 

As a result, those living and visiting in South Texas should make arrangements to brace for tropical storm conditions throughout the region.